Homework #$1-$ Forecasting

Authentic Cracker Company $($ACC$)$ manufactures sardine flavored fish shaped crackers. They are shipped in full truckloads to the retail customers' DCs$.$ Below is the number of truckloads ABC shipped per month during $2022/2023$:

$\backslash$table$[[2022,$TL Shipped $($demand$)],[$October$,1855],[$November$,1913],[$December$,1975],[,],[2023,],[$January$,1875],[$February$,1860],[$March$,1825],[$April$,1776],[$May$,1700],[$June$,1665],[$July$,1670],[$August$,1782],[$September$,1886],[$October$,1961],[$November$,2130],[$December$,2235]]$

ACC is evaluating the forecasting methods listed below.

a$.$ Simple $3-$period moving average

b$.3$ period weighted average using the following weights: $t-1=\mathrm{.}6,t-2=\mathrm{.}25,t-3=\mathrm{.}15$

c$.$ Exponential smoothing alpha of $\mathrm{.}75.$ Use a "given" Expo forecast for Jan $2023$ of $1955$

Use the historical data provided above to create forecasts for each month in $2023$ to test out the three options that ACC is considering using to forecast sales. On a separate page

Generate the monthly forecast using the three methods

Using a separate page$/$sheet for each forecasting method, calculate the monthly KPIs, Annual Totals$/$Averages for CFE$/$bias$,$ MAD, MSE, MAPE, and tracking signal $($this is just CFE$/$MAD$)$ note so this part will be three separate pages

Create a final page$/$sheet comparing the annual KPIs, indicate which forecast method performs best for each KPI and make a final recommendation, supporting your selection. Note any other observation you have about the sales patterns$/$trends$.$

You must either show "hand calculations" or have embedded formulas in an excel to demonstrate how determined your forecasts & KPIS