Homework $1-$ Probability and Flood Routing

Question $1)$

The peak flow values for a creek is provided in the table below. Assuming the flow distribution is normal, calculate:

a$)80$ year peak flow $($cfs$)$

b$)$ Probability of $8,000$ cfs peak flow

c$)$ If a cofferdam is about to built assuming a construction period of $5$ year, what flood return period should be used if the desired Risk is $\backslash (\backslash$leq $10\backslash \%\backslash )$

d$)$ Calculate the reliability

e$)$ calculate the probability of the cofferdam getting overtopped

f$)$ what would be the equivalent flow rate for this flood return period

$\backslash$begin$\{$tabular$\}\{|$c$|$c$|$c$|$c$|$c$|$c$|\}$

$\backslash$hline Year & Peak Flow $($cfs$)$ & Year & Peak Flow $($cfs$)$ & Year & $\backslash$begin$\{$tabular$\}\{$c$\}$

Peak Flow $\backslash \backslash$

$($cfs$)$

$\backslash$end$\{$tabular$\}\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1980$ & $9,840$ & $1995$ & $10,300$ & $2010$ & $3,460\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1981$ & $5,170$ & $1996$ & $6,260$ & $2011$ & $3,080\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1982$ & $1,620$ & $1997$ & $1,360$ & $2012$ & $2,730\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1983$ & $235$ & $1998$ & $1,000$ & $2013$ & $9,860\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1984$ & $15,600$ & $1999$ & $2,770$ & $2014$ & $4,210\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1985$ & $4,740$ & $2000$ & $1,400$ & $2015$ & $3,150\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1986$ & $427$ & $2001$ & $3,210$ & $2016$ & $5,730\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1987$ & $3,310$ & $2002$ & $1,110$ & $2017$ & $3,830\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1988$ & $4,400$ & $2003$ & $5,230$ & $2018$ & $5,060\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1989$ & $7,760$ & $2004$ & $4,300$ & $2019$ & $4,590\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1990$ & $2,520$ & $2005$ & $2,820$ & $2020$ & $2,840\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1991$ & $340$ & $2006$ & $1,900$ & $2021$ & $3,610\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1992$ & $5,440$ & $2007$ & $3,980$ & $2022$ & $1,250\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1993$ & $3,000$ & $2008$ & $6,560$ & $2023$ & $5,480\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1994$ & $3,690$ & $2009$ & $4,710$ & & $\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline

$\backslash$end$\{$tabular$\}$