How brands can win when markets are volatile $-$BY: ZAK HAERI, ISSUED BY: GFK

SOUTH AFRICA$-2$ FEB $2022-$

Before the pandemic struck in early $2020,$ we were already operating in fast$-$moving and uncertain

times. But Covid$-19$ has exposed us to levels of market volatility that we have not seen since the

Global Financial crisis more than a decade ago. Indeed, we've moved through such rapid cycles of

infection, lockdown, and government stimulus that the heads of most business and marketing

leaders are still spinning.

The outlook for $2022$ is uncertain, with much depending on whether we see new Covid$-19$ variants

emerge. While there$$s an air of cautious optimism that we$$ve seen the worst of the pandemic, the

withdrawal of government relief measures, rising interest rates, local and geo$-$politics, digital

acceleration, and higher inflation pose challenges of their own.

So$,$ how do brands position themselves to win in such an uncertain market when a range of forces

are shaping customer behaviour?

There is no one$-$size$-$fits$-$all answer, but there are three general principles that can help most

organisations navigate market turbulence:

$1.$ Offence is the best defence

In turbulent times, many organisations batten down the hatches and wait out the storm. They follow

a strategy of damage limitation because they do not want to take any bold risks based on an

imperfect understanding of how the market dynamics are changing. However, there are also

businesses that see volatility as an opportunity to not only protect and consolidate their businesses,

but to grow them by taking calculated risks.

There are some brands in nearly every sector that have grown their market share throughout the

Covid crisis. They used data and information to make forecasts about the future and made educated

bets about where and how they could win in the new reality of lockdowns and global supply chain

disruptions. In many instances, these brands have grown at the expense of the brands that, for

example, cut marketing budgets and inventory while they waited for the crisis to pass.

$2.$ Make decisions based on facts

Even though data$-$driven decision$-$making is one of the buzzwords of the moment, many business

decisions are still made based on gut feeling or conventional wisdom. Because human beings are

blinkered by dozens of cognitive biases, this can lead to decisions that are irrational or based on a

limited perspective of the world. The more complex the decision, the riskier it is to make irrational

decisions based on wobbly assumptions.

Changing this picture begins with the humility of admitting that no person knows everything and

seeking the facts. Not only can the facts guide the organisation towards making better decisions,

they can also build support among stakeholders for doing the right thing. If facts are available, all

stakeholders can evaluate them and reach the same conclusion. We always find, however, that

using the facts and data to tell a story supports this process.

$3.$ Separate signal from noise

Organisations today are data$-$rich, with data flooding into their businesses from a growing list of

internal systems, external data providers and connected devices. But the real challenge in an age of

big data, when data lakes have turned into data swamps, is identifying which data can be translated

into valuable business insights. This highlights why it$$s important for brands to focus on data quality

and work closely with partners who understand how to extract actionable information from their data.