how did he calculated the probability modified

0' word File Edit View Insert Format Tools Table Window Help Q E '3' 0 E" : Operaiion 8212565[CompatibilityMode] CV v Insert Draw Design Layout References Mailings Review View .'.+ Share A Managem Mabccdee AaEchDdEe AaBchD( AaBchDdE _ } paste v ' B I E v abs x2 i i I Nomi-l No Splcing Heading 1 Heading 2 so??? an hour ago "6. An appliance dealer must decide how many (if any) new microwave ovens to order for next an hour ago month. The ovens cost $220 and sell for 5300. Because the oven company is coming out with a new product line in two months, any ovens not sold next month will have to be sold at the dealer's half if_any.new. price clearance sale. Additionally, the appliance dealer feels he suffers a loss of $25 for every oven demanded when he is out of stock. on the basis of past months' sales data, the dealer estimates the probabilities of monthly demand in) for o, 1, 2, or 3 ovens to be .3, .4, .2, and .1, respectively. The dealer is considering conducting a telephone survey on the customers' attitudes towards an hour ago microwave ovens. The results ofthe survey will eipner be WU), mm) or no opinion (N). The dealer's probability estimates for the survey results based on the number of units fond table demanded are: PF u=o=.1 . (I ) I 9mlnutesago P(F|D=2)-3 P(U|D:D):_8 P(U|D=2):_1 V P(F|D=1)=.Z - 2mlnutesago ririoesis P(U|D=1)=_3 P(U|D=3)=.1 Send Page1of4 745 words [1? English (India) D Focus - '\\J + 100% A k E IT t Answer from your tutor: s xper u ors You can ask 18 questions (wiil expire if 1 me Word File Edit View Insert Format Tools Table Window Help 25% Sun 3:17 PM Q DE Operations Management-8212565 [Compatibility Mode] Search in Document Home Insert Draw Design Layout References Mailings Review View '+ Share ~ malomair@gmail.com - Gmail Calibri 11 A AV Aa A AaBbCcDdEe AaBbCcDdEe AaBbCcDC|AaBbCcDdE Paste BI U abe X2 X2 A A = = = =1 . Normal No Spacing Heading 1 Heading 2 Styles Pane an hour ago c. Based on the survey results what is the optimal decision strategy for the dealer? Probabilities of results of survey: Note : the probabilities have been modified excluding the no opinion population. U-F an hour ago 0 demand 0.11 0.89 1 demand 0.4 0.6 if-any-new- 2 demand 0.75 9.25 3 demand 0.9 0.1 Modified probabilities and pay off for each case: Probabilities 0.033 0.356 0.178 0.089 an hour ago Modified 0.051 0.542 0.271 0.136 Demand ond table Forecast 2 0 $ 0.00 $ 25.00 $ 50.00 $ 75.00 -$ 37.29 10 minutes ago Probabilities 0.180 0.160 0.120 0.060 Modified 0.346 0.308 0.231 0.115 Demand Forecast 2 -$ 70.00 $ 80.00 $ 55.00 $ 13.65 3 minutes ago + Probabilities 0.075 0.100 0.150 0.025 Modifie 0.214 .286 0.429 0.071 Demand Forecast 0 2 2 -$ 140.00 $ 10.00 $ 160.00 $ 135.00 $ 51.07 Send Page 2 of 4 745 words X English (India) Focus E - + 100% Answer from your tutor: Ask Expert Tutors You can ask 18 questions (will expire 3) RAB. I 20 P X W