Question: How do I do this in excel? Directions: Forecast sales for the first 12 months in 2005 using 1. The moving average method (number of
How do I do this in excel?
Directions:
| Forecast sales for the first 12 months in 2005 using |
| 1. The moving average method (number of time periods of your choice) |
| 2. The exponential smoothing method |
| 3. The time series method |
| For all 3 methods find the MAD and MAPE. Determine the most appropriate method for this set of data |
| Create a plot that shows actual demand and forecasted demand from all 3 methods |
| Sales of shampoo over a 3yr period | Forecast | abs dev | MAD | % Error | MAPE | |
| Month | ||||||
| 2001-01 | 266.00 | |||||
| 2001-02 | 145.90 | |||||
| 2001-03 | 183.10 | |||||
| 2001-04 | 119.30 | |||||
| 2001-05 | 180.30 | |||||
| 2001-06 | 168.50 | |||||
| 2001-07 | 231.80 | |||||
| 2001-08 | 224.50 | |||||
| 2001-09 | 192.80 | |||||
| 2001-10 | 122.90 | |||||
| 2001-11 | 336.50 | |||||
| 2001-12 | 185.90 | |||||
| 2002-01 | 194.30 | |||||
| 2002-02 | 149.50 | |||||
| 2002-03 | 210.10 | |||||
| 2002-04 | 273.30 | |||||
| 2002-05 | 191.40 | |||||
| 2002-06 | 287.00 | |||||
| 2002-07 | 226.00 | |||||
| 2002-08 | 303.60 | |||||
| 2002-09 | 289.90 | |||||
| 2002-10 | 421.60 | |||||
| 2002-11 | 264.50 | |||||
| 2002-12 | 342.30 | |||||
| 2003-01 | 339.70 | |||||
| 2003-02 | 440.40 | |||||
| 2003-03 | 315.90 | |||||
| 2003-04 | 439.30 | |||||
| 2003-05 | 401.30 | |||||
| 2003-06 | 437.40 | |||||
| 2003-07 | 575.50 | |||||
| 2003-08 | 407.60 | |||||
| 2003-09 | 682.00 | |||||
| 2003-10 | 475.30 | |||||
| 2003-11 | 581.30 | |||||
| 2003-12 | 646.90 | |||||
| 2004-1 | 377.07 | |||||
| 2004-2 | 475.63 | |||||
| 2004-3 | 363.29 | |||||
| 2004-4 | 465.66 | |||||
| 2004-5 | 429.39 | |||||
| 2004-6 | 468.02 | |||||
| 2004-7 | 581.26 | |||||
| 2004-8 | 411.68 | |||||
| 2004-9 | 682.00 | |||||
| 2004-10 | 503.82 | |||||
| 2004-11 | 598.74 | |||||
| 2004-12 | 666.31 |
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