Question: how would you approach assigning accurate probability distributions in a market-entry scenario with limited historical data (something like the first iPhone launch)? There's no right

how would you approach assigning accurate probability distributions in a market-entry scenario with limited historical data (something like the first iPhone launch)? There's no right answer I'm looking for, just curious. Overconfidence in inputs can skew results. As Kenton (2025) notes, sensitivity analysis is often a needed complement to ensure robustness under varied assumptions

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