https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/Historic-Yield-Data-Visualization.aspx

Estrella (NY Fed) is quite certain that the yield curve is a good predictor of future economic activity. From the case, or the link to his FAQs, answer the following questions:

a. How successful is the yield curve at predicting recessions?

b. What matters most the level of the term spread, the change in the spread, or the level of short term interest rates?

c. Discuss why a yield curve inversion should lead to a recession.

Treasury Yield Curve Choose a date 2018 ? JUNE 08 06/08/2018 3.0 Select to compare dates Enter comparison date 2.0 REAL Update Chart Go 1.0 06/08/2018 Junc 8, 2018 NOMINAL Junc 8, 2018 REAL Select Date NOMINAL_ Select Date REAL -t- 1MO 3MO 6MO 1YR 2YR 3YR SYR TYR 10YR 20YR 30YR Maturity Note: X-Axis (Matrit is not to scale View Text Version of Treasury Yield Curve Data for real maturities may not be available for all dates for which nominal maturity data is available Treasury Yield Curve Choose a date 2018 ? JUNE 08 06/08/2018 3.0 Select to compare dates Enter comparison date 2.0 REAL Update Chart Go 1.0 06/08/2018 Junc 8, 2018 NOMINAL Junc 8, 2018 REAL Select Date NOMINAL_ Select Date REAL -t- 1MO 3MO 6MO 1YR 2YR 3YR SYR TYR 10YR 20YR 30YR Maturity Note: X-Axis (Matrit is not to scale View Text Version of Treasury Yield Curve Data for real maturities may not be available for all dates for which nominal maturity data is available