Question: Based on the historical record, if you invest in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, what is the approximate probability that your return will be below-6.3% in

Based on the historical record, if you invest in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, what is the approximate probability that your return will be below-6.3% in a given year? What range of returns would you expect to see 95% of the time? 99% of the time?
How you got those ranges? on what base?
As the interest rate is likely to be reduced in future in order to boost the retail demand due to low inflation, the range of 1.5-2% of returns I would expect to see 95% of the time and 2.5-4% to see 99% of he time as retail demand is picked up a bit.

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