I really only need help with the word problem $-$ How would you explain this model to Karen?

Assume that January sales for the fourth year turn out to be $$295,000.$ What was your

forecast error? If this error is large, Karen may be puzzled about the difference between your

forecast and the actual sales value. What can you do to resolve her uncertainty about the

forecasting procedure? Fint Hrevew

$\backslash$begin$\{$tabular$\}\{$lccc$\}$

Month & $\backslash$begin$\{$tabular$\}\{$l$\}$

First $\backslash \backslash$

Year

$\backslash$end$\{$tabular$\}$ & $\backslash$begin$\{$tabular$\}\{$l$\}$

Second $\backslash \backslash$

Year

$\backslash$end$\{$tabular$\}$ & $\backslash$begin$\{$tabular$\}\{$l$\}$

Third $\backslash \backslash$

Year

$\backslash$end$\{$tabular$\}\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline August & $152$ & $161$ & $174\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline September & $110$ & $122$ & $126\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline October & $130$ & $130$ & $148\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline November & $152$ & $167$ & $173\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline December & $206$ & $230$ & $235\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline

$\backslash$end$\{$tabular$\}$ Managerial Report

Perform an analysis of the sales data for the Vintage Restaurant. Prepare a report for Karen that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following:

$1.$ A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattern in the time series.

$2.$ Using the dummy variable approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year.

How would you explain this model to Karen?

Assume that January sales for the fourth year turn out to be $\backslash$$$295,000.$ What was your forecast error? If this error is large, Karen may be puzzled about the difference between your forecast and the actual sales value. What can you do to resolve her uncertainty about the forecasting procedure?