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A,B,C,D

(5 points) Management of the Telemore Company is deciding about developing a new product. It is estimated to be twice as likely that the product would prove to be successful as unsuccessful. If it were successful, the expected profit would be 1.5 million dollars. If unsuccessful, the expected loss would be 1.8 million dollars. A marketing survey can be conducted at a cost of 0.3 million dollars to predict whether the product would be successful. Past experience with such surveys indicates that successful products have been predicted to be successful 80 percent of the time, whereas unsuccessful products have been predicted to be unsuccessful 70 percent of the time. a. Develop the payoff table of this problem by identifying the decision alternatives, the states of nature when the market survey is not conducted. b. Assuming the market survey is not conducted, use Bayes' decision rule to determine which decision alternative should be chosen. c. Find expected value of perfect information (EVPI). d. Assume now that the market survey is conducted. Find expected value of experiment (EVE). e. What is the optimal policy regarding whether to conduct the market survey and whether to develop and market the new product