Identify a situation in life or work where a Decision had to be made that required a forecast of a variable for which you had data going back several time periods- * Describe the situation briefly and identify the variable you are forecasting. * Plot the data you have for the variable on a time series plot (scatterplot with dots connected). You must have at least 10 time periods, but you'll probably also want no more than 30. Include the graph in your discussion post. Note: if the data you want to use is sensitive, private, or proprietary, you can either not use it or change the numbers to reflect the situation, but that doesn't reveal the true values. The idea is that you are applying the method to your life. * Identify visually evident pattern(s) in the time series plot. * Calculate the MAE, MSE, and MAPE using the naive method and another method of your choosing: moving average, weighted moving average, linear trend, seasonality without trend, or seasonality with trend. The method should ideally match the visually evident pattern you identify. You don't need to show all of your work in the post, but report the finals values for MAE, MSE, MAPE for both methods. * Briefly identify the method that produces the better forecast