Question: (If possible could you use another method that is not Holt's Winter seasonal method Thanks!)You have just started your internship with the ABC consulting company
(If possible could you use another method that is not Holt's Winter seasonal method Thanks!)You have just started your internship with the ABC consulting company located in New York. One of the ABCs clients is Walmart who is interested in getting information about future revenue. You have been given this task by your immediate boss, Mrs. Kate Williams to improve ABC forecasting method. ABC currently is using exponential smoothing method with = 0.3 to forecast the future revenue. Mrs. Williams asked you to come up with a different forecasting model and recommend the best model to the client for his/her use. He has provided the following data below. With this in mind, you need to provide a written report which includes appropriate graphs, Excel worksheets, your justification for your choice of models and the selection of the better model with the forecast of the next four quarters if feasible.
| Quarter | Year | Net revenue (Million) | |
| 1 | Q1 | 2014 | 9995 |
| 2 | Q2 | 2014 | 11355 |
| 3 | Q3 | 2014 | 11139 |
| 4 | Q4 | 2014 | 10161 |
| 5 | Q1 | 2015 | 9827 |
| 6 | Q2 | 2015 | 10827 |
| 7 | Q3 | 2015 | 10706 |
| 8 | Q4 | 2015 | 9630 |
| 9 | Q1 | 2016 | 9435 |
| 10 | Q2 | 2016 | 10363 |
| 11 | Q3 | 2016 | 10594 |
| 12 | Q4 | 2016 | 9750 |
| 13 | Q1 | 2017 | 9820 |
| 14 | Q2 | 2017 | 11227 |
| 15 | Q3 | 2017 | 10965 |
| 16 | Q4 | 2017 | 10610 |
| 17 | Q1 | 2018 | 10401 |
| 18 | Q2 | 2018 | 11643 |
| 19 | Q3 | 2018 | 11559 |
| 20 | Q4 | 2018 | 10938 |
| 21 | Q1 | 2019 | 10584 |
| 22 | Q2 | 2019 | 11960 |
| Criteria | Points Available | Points Earned |
| FORECASTING - demonstrates understanding of: | ||
| Clearly identifies two potential furcating models for data using time series plot. | 15 | |
| Data use appropriately and completed the first forecasting model correctly | 25 | |
| Data use appropriately and completed the second forecasting model correctly | 25 | |
| Appropriate technique is used correctly to identify the better model | 15 | |
| The forecast correctly provided | 10 | |
| PROFESSIONALISM Written summary, organization, presentation, etc. | 10 | |
| TOTAL | 100 |
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