Question: If you cannot answer all questions, please leave it for someone who can.....please! I need the entire thing answered not just one question. Holiday Galore

If you cannot answer all questions, please leave it for someone who can.....please! I need the entire thing answered not just one question.

Holiday Galore Company has chosen to sell Christmas wrapping paper. They have to choose how many rolls of Christmas wrapping paper to sell in their first year. Demand can either be 50K, 100K, 200K, or 500K this year.

Demand in Cases

_____Per Year_____ Probability

50,000 .15

100,000 .25

200,000 .45

500,000 .15

It costs them $3 to create each roll of signature Christmas wrapping paper and they can sell it for $10 per roll. The salvage value for the wrapping paper is $5 per roll- if they make extra they can sell it the following year at a discounted price. The lost good will is $4 per every missed opportunity to sell this wrapping paper.

1) Set up a payoff table for this situation. Fill in the diagonal, above the diagonal and below the diagonal for all conditional payoffs. (Round to the nearest whole number)

Demand\

Stock

50,000 100,000 200,000 500,000
50,000
100,000
200,000
500,000

2) How much should the company stock in the case of each of the following decision rules? (Round to the nearest whole number):

  • Optimistic (maximax)?
  • Pessimistic (minimax)?
  • Equally likely?
  • EMV (use given probabilities)?

Fill in the chart below to show your work (Round to the nearest whole number):

Stock Maximax Maximin Equally Likely EMV
50,000
100,000
200,000
500,000

3) What is the expected value of perfect information concerning demand? (Round to the nearest whole number):

EPPI:

EVPI:

4) Draw a complete decision tree for this problem. Make sure to fold back the tree and incorporate EMV.

I dont know what other information is needed.

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