III. The table given below shows quarterly data for television set sales. (6 points each)

Year	Quarter	Sales(in $1000's)	Four quarter Moving Average	Centred Moving Average	Ratio to moving average
(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)=(3)/(5)
2015	1	4.8	NA	NA	NA
2015	2	4.1	NA	NA	NA
2015	3	6	(a)=5.35	(c)=5.475	(e)=1.096
2015	4	6.5	(b)=5.60	(d)=5.738	(f)=1.133
2016	1	5.8	5.875	5.975	0.971
2016	2	5.2	6.075	6.188	0.840
2016	3	6.8	6.3	6.325	1.075
2016	4	7.4	6.35	6.400	1.156
2017	1	6	6.45	6.538	0.918
2017	2	5.6	6.625	6.675	0.839
2017	3	7.5	6.725	6.763	1.109
2017	4	7.8	6.8	6.838	1.141
2018	1	6.3	6.875	6.938	0.908
2018	2	5.9	7	7.075	0.834
2018	3	8	7.15	NA	NA
2018	4	8.4	NA

4. Given that the trend component is T = 5.101 + 0.148 t (as obtained using deseasonalized values), determine the cyclical and irregular activities (C*I) for the first quarter of 2019.

5. Given that the cyclical component for the first quarter of 2019 is C = 1.10, what is the irregular component for the first quarter of 2019?

6. Fill up the following forecast table. (Ignore cyclical and irregular activity.)

Year Quarter Trend forecast Quarterly forecast

2022 1 7617 _______________

2 7765 _______________

3 7913 _______________

4 8061 _______________