Illness Regression Progressi Illness Regression 0 Progression 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 For the same table above, assume that you cannot observe patient's condition. You can only observe caretaker's behavior. Caretaker is happy when patient is in progression. Probability of happiness Illness Regression 0.1 ession 0.8 Based on caretaker's happiness, use Hidden Markov Model to find out following Suppose last time you saw patient he was ill. The next day, caretaker looked happy Assuming that prior probability of caretaker being happy any day is 0.5, what is the probability that on second day, patient was in regression state