ime block $($t$)$ Arrivals $($x$($t$)$

of $939$ and a trend hat$(b{)}_0$ of $6\mathrm{.}58.$ Assume that the forecast for period $1$ is the

sum of the level and the trend, that is$,$ hat$(x{)}_{0,1}=945\mathrm{.}58.$

What is your forecast for next $4-$hour block's $($for $t=22)$ number of incoming calls? $($Round your

answer to the nearest whole number.$)$

What is the Mean Absolute Percentage Error $($MAPE$)$ of the forecast for the given data, as meas ured

from the forecast for period $1$ to the forecast made in period $21?$ Answer in percent without the

percentage symbol, e$.$g$.$ if your answer is $24\mathrm{.}5\%$ write $24\mathrm{.}5.$

You have used $0$ of $2$ attempts

Part $4$

$0\mathrm{.}0/0\mathrm{.}8$ points $($graded$)$

Brandon Washington suggests you also include a trend$-$dampening component, $=0\mathrm{.}7.$

Build a level and trend exponential smoothing model with damped trends for the incoming calls. Use

an alpha of $0\mathrm{.}25,$ a beta of $0\mathrm{.}05,$ a level hat$(a{)}_0$ of $939$ and a trend hat$(b{)}_0$ of $6\mathrm{.}58.$

What is your forecast for next $4-$hour block's $($for $t=22)$ number of incoming calls? $($Round your

answer to the nearest whole number.$)$

What is the Mean Absolute Percentage Error $($MAPE$)$ of the forecast for the given data, as measured

from the forecast for period $1$ to the forecast made in period $21?$ Answer in percent without the

percentage symbol, e$.$g$.$ if your answer is $24\mathrm{.}5\%$ write $24\mathrm{.}5.)],[1,876$