Question: In a 2013 article, Forbes.com reports that the average cost of creating a new drug is now a few billion dollars. The price is so
In a 2013 article, Forbes.com reports that the average cost of creating a new drug is now a few billion dollars. The price is so high because its hard to create a drug thats both effective and safe. Indeed, 95% of drugs companies test end up failing at least one of those criteria. And each of these failed drugs cost the company $350 million.[1] Of course, drugs that make it to market may not be successful. Using the provided information, what is the expected value of a new drug (before it is known if the drug is effective and safe)? Remember to show your work.
| Performance in the market is | % | Profit (millions) |
| Astonishing | 60% | $10,000 |
| Standard | 30% | $3,000 |
| Terrible | 10% | $200 |
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