Question: IN PYTHON The second column in the data file globtemp.csv (see attached) are annual global temperature deviations from 1880 to 2004. a. Fit an ARIMA(p,d,q)
IN PYTHON
The second column in the data file globtemp.csv (see attached) are annual global temperature deviations from 1880 to 2004.
a. Fit an ARIMA(p,d,q) model or any other models defined in Python to the data.
b. Perform all of the necessary diagnostics for the model fitted in Part a.
c. After deciding on an appropriate model, forecast (with limits) the next 10 years. Comments
The globtemp.csv file has 3 columns as Date, std, and Mean:
Date std Mean 1880 -0.11 * 1881 -0.13 * 1882 -0.01 -0.14 1883 -0.04 -0.17 1884 -0.42 -0.19 1885 -0.23 -0.28 1886 -0.25 -0.32 1887 -0.45 -0.22 1888 -0.23 -0.22 1889 0.04 -0.28 1890 -0.22 -0.27 1891 -0.55 -0.3 1892 -0.4 -0.37 1893 -0.39 -0.4 1894 -0.32 -0.34 1895 -0.32 -0.29 1896 -0.27 -0.25 1897 -0.15 -0.24 1898 -0.21 -0.18 1899 -0.25 -0.14 1900 -0.05 -0.17 1901 -0.05 -0.2 1902 -0.3 -0.23 1903 -0.35 -0.27 1904 -0.42 -0.29 1905 -0.25 -0.31 1906 -0.15 -0.31 1907 -0.41 -0.28 1908 -0.3 -0.27 1909 -0.31 -0.29 1910 -0.21 -0.28 1911 -0.25 -0.28 1912 -0.33 -0.22 1913 -0.28 -0.16 1914 -0.02 -0.15 1915 0.06 -0.18 1916 -0.2 -0.19 1917 -0.46 -0.2 1918 -0.33 -0.25 1919 -0.09 -0.21 1920 -0.15 -0.14 1921 -0.04 -0.11 1922 -0.09 -0.11 1923 -0.16 -0.11 1924 -0.11 -0.09 1925 -0.15 -0.08 1926 0.04 -0.05 1927 -0.05 -0.07 1928 0.01 -0.05 1929 -0.22 -0.05 1930 -0.03 -0.03 1931 0.03 -0.06 1932 0.04 0 1933 -0.11 -0.01 1934 0.05 -0.02 1935 -0.08 0 1936 0.01 0.05 1937 0.12 0.04 1938 0.15 0.08 1939 -0.02 0.1 1940 0.14 0.1 1941 0.11 0.08 1942 0.1 0.1 1943 0.06 0.07 1944 0.1 0.05 1945 -0.01 0.06 1946 0.01 0.04 1947 0.12 0 1948 -0.03 -0.03 1949 -0.09 -0.04 1950 -0.17 -0.05 1951 -0.02 -0.02 1952 0.03 -0.03 1953 0.12 -0.01 1954 -0.09 -0.04 1955 -0.09 -0.03 1956 -0.18 -0.04 1957 0.08 -0.01 1958 0.1 0 1959 0.05 0.06 1960 -0.02 0.05 1961 0.1 0.04 1962 0.05 -0.02 1963 0.03 -0.04 1964 -0.25 -0.08 1965 -0.15 -0.09 1966 -0.07 -0.12 1967 -0.02 -0.06 1968 -0.09 -0.03 1969 0 -0.03 1970 0.04 -0.04 1971 -0.1 0.01 1972 -0.05 0 1973 0.18 -0.01 1974 -0.06 -0.03 1975 -0.02 0.01 1976 -0.21 -0.01 1977 0.16 0.03 1978 0.07 0.08 1979 0.13 0.21 1980 0.27 0.19 1981 0.4 0.25 1982 0.1 0.25 1983 0.34 0.22 1984 0.16 0.18 1985 0.13 0.23 1986 0.19 0.25 1987 0.35 0.27 1988 0.42 0.34 1989 0.28 0.4 1990 0.49 0.36 1991 0.44 0.31 1992 0.16 0.32 1993 0.18 0.31 1994 0.31 0.3 1995 0.47 0.34 1996 0.36 0.45 1997 0.4 0.47 1998 0.71 0.46 1999 0.43 0.5 2000 0.41 0.56 2001 0.56 0.55 2002 0.7 0.59 2003 0.66 * 2004 0.6 *
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