Question: in roughly 500 words, summarize the patterns in the data and assess how the patterns you observe in 2020 differ from what we saw in
in roughly 500 words, summarize the patterns in the data and assess how the patterns you observe in 2020 differ from what we saw in 2016. Did Biden outperform Clinton? Did Trump outperform or under perform his 2016 showing? Why did we ultimately see a different result? Use examples from the data to bolster your claims
Linear regression-Biden's 2020 vote share as a function of Clinton's 2016 vote share
| Biden_Pct | Coef. | St.Err. | t-value | p-value | [95% Conf | Interval] | Sig | ||||
| ClintonPct | .975 | .024 | 41.06 | 0 | .927 | 1.023 | *** | ||||
| Constant | 5.115 | 1.097 | 4.66 | 0 | 2.909 | 7.32 | *** | ||||
| Mean dependent var | 48.608 | SD dependent var | 12.054 | ||||||||
| R-squared | 0.972 | Number of obs | 51 | ||||||||
| F-test | 1685.748 | Prob > F | 0.000 | ||||||||
| Akaike crit. (AIC) | 219.736 | Bayesian crit. (BIC) | 223.600 | ||||||||
| *** p<.01, ** p<.05, * p<.1 | |||||||||||
Linear regression-Trump's 2020 vote share as a function of Trump's 2016 vote share
| Trump_Vote_201 | 1.486 | .111 | 13.38 | 0 | 1.263 | 1.709 | *** | ||||
| Constant | -241853.27 | 186030.56 | -1.30 | .2 | -615695.68 | 131989.14 | |||||
| Mean dependent var | 1593627.745 | SD dependent var | 1916161.970 | ||||||||
| R-squared | 0.785 | Number of obs | 51 | ||||||||
| F-test | 179.011 | Prob > F | 0.000 | ||||||||
| Akaike crit. (AIC) | 1544.821 | Bayesian crit. (BIC) | 1548.684 | ||||||||
| *** p<.01, ** p<.05, * p<.1 | |||||||||||
Linear regression-other candidate vote share in 2020 as a function of other candidate vote share in 2016
| Other_2020 | Coef. | St.Err. | t-value | p-value | [95% Conf | Interval] | Sig | ||||
| Other_2016 | 33.903 | .989 | 34.28 | 0 | 31.916 | 35.89 | *** | ||||
| Constant | 78592.046 | 227758.26 | 0.35 | .732 | -379105.3 | 536289.4 | |||||
| Mean dependent var | 5599072.549 | SD dependent var | 5692675.118 | ||||||||
| R-squared | 0.960 | Number of obs | 51 | ||||||||
| F-test | 1175.457 | Prob > F | 0.000 | ||||||||
| Akaike crit. (AIC) | 1570.160 | Bayesian crit. (BIC) | 1574.024 | ||||||||
| *** p<.01, ** p<.05, * p<.1 | |||||||||||
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