In this exercise, you will explore the very common question $$Given a project network, how long

will it take to finish the project?$$ Here is your project network:

This is a nice small network, with $4$ tasks $$ large networks will often have hundreds or thousands

of tasks.

As implied by the network, tasks A and B can be done independently of tasks C and D$.$ But B

cannot start until A is done, and D cannot start until C is done. $($This is called a $$finish$-$to$-$start$$

task dependency, by far the most common type. $$Start$-$to$-$start,$$finish$-$to$-$finish,$$ etc. also exist

and can be specified in Microsoft Project$).$

Time required to do each task is uncertain. Very often, the triangular distribution is used to

estimate the duration of a task. The minimum is $$everything went right $[$heh heh$],$ the mode is

the most likely duration, and the maximum is $$lots of things went wrong.$$ Assume the

following:

Task Duration

A Triangular $(10,14,20)$

B Triangular $(6,8,14)$

C Triangular $(5,8,15)$

D Triangular $(10,15,21)$

Simulate $500$ replications $($the technical term; we$$ll see much more of it from chapter $4$ onward$)$

of this project. What are the average, standard deviation, minimum, and maximum of the project

duration times? What fraction of the time is A$-$B the longer path? What fraction of the time is

C$-$D the longer path? A histogram of the $500$ simulated duration times, please.

You may use Microsoft Excel$,$ Minitab$,$ JMP$,$ or @RISK$--$ your team$$s choice. I tried it

in Minitab$--$ well worth exploring; many capabilities came to light. Hints just may be

available during online office hours! Upload your pertinent file to Canvas, and in the Canvas

comment box available during assignment uploads, type your team$$s answers to the questions in

the previous paragraph.

Keep reading next page please!

A B

C D

Start Finish