In using causal methods in forecasting (and in general) we must meet the essential conditions of causality ( X causes Y ). These conditions are, briefly (choose from options below): X and Y are not in a spurious relationship, that is, no other variable is driving the observed correlation between X and Y. If X is absent, Y (or much of it) will not happen. All of the three conditions that are mentioned as options X precedes Y That there is an observed correlation between X and Y and that such a correlation did not emerge from coincidence or chance alone (in other words, the correlaton is statistically sig.)