IN-CLASS TEAM EXERCISE: Estimating, Part 1

PURPOSE:This exercise demonstrates the challenge and difficulty that can be encountered estimating even simple tasks, at increasing levels of complication. The objective is NOT to evaluate responses as correct or incorrect, but to observe patterns of data dispersion.

NOTE: In *ALL* of the estimates we make in this exercise, there is NO need to consult references materials, and NO need to look up any facts or quotations - use only your own judgement.

Part 1. Estimate the items below on your own as an individual exercise, without collaborating with anyone else. Wait until all team members have finished part 1 at their own pace. No need to consult references materials or look up items - use your own judgement.

Part 2. After everyone has completed part 1 (on their own), meet with your team and share your estimates, which may differ from those of other team members. That's OK. Knowing each member's reasoning should allow the team's group analysis to converge to a final submission of a single best team estimate, which you will record in the last column. Again, no need to consult references materials or look up items.

Record your responses and your team's consensus responses in the table below.

#	ESTIMATE TO MAKE	PART 1 YOUR INDIVIDUAL ESTIMATE	PART 2 TEAMCONSENSUS ESTIMATE	DIFFERENCE OF YOUR ESTIMATE AND TEAMCONSENSUS ESTIMATE
1	Number of attendees at tonight's class
2	Average time that a PM348 In-Class Exercise takes (minutes)
3	Average number of pages that a typical student in PM 348 has remaining to read in the Kendrick textbook
4	Number of contacts per smartphone of each person on your team
5	Median high school grade point average of all students in this class
6	Points the San Francisco 49ers will score in their next game
7	Price of Google stock on January 1 of next year (dollars)
8	Year of the next Black Swan global event

IN-CLASS TEAM EXERCISE: Estimating, Part 2

PURPOSE:This exercise provides use of the PERT formula, leveraging the estimates developed in the previous exercise, and allows a possible opportunity to evaluate or at lease observe, the usefulness of the PERT formula shown in diagram below.

INSTRUCTIONS: Break into teams. Without asking anyone on any other team, revisit the following selected estimates that your team previously made, and determine which person's estimate was the pessimistic one, optimistic one, and most likely one. Use them in the using PERT 3-Point formula to see what it gives for the "expected" value:

	Pessimistic	Optimistic	Most Likely	EXPECTED
Number of contacts per smartphone of each person on your team
Points the 49ers will score in their next game
Price of Google stock on January 1 next year (dollars)

3-Point Estimates 3-point estimates originated with "PERT" (Program Evaluation and Review Technique*) * Created by US Navy, 1950's O to tm te Lp TIME 1% 50% 99% to = "Optimistic" estimate to + 4t + tm = "Most likely" estimate m 0 to = "Pessimistic" estimate 6 te = "Expected" estimate