Information asset X is an internal human resources database behind a firewall which has a value of $40$ on a scale of $0$ to $100.$ A successful attack decimates $50\%$ of X$$s worth. Industry reports indicate a $2$ percent chance of such an attack. The information security department has assessed that if the organization is attacked, the attack has a $15\%$ percent chance of success based on the current asset vulnerabilities and safeguards. Assuming $10\%$ margin of error in data, calculate the risk to asset X$.[10]$