Instructions:

$1.$ Understand the Data:

$-$ Review the provided data tables for each forecasting technique $($Na$$ve Forecasting, $2-$point Moving Average, and $3-$point Moving Average$).$

$-$ Note the actual values $($A$)$ and the forecasted values $($F$)$ for each period.

$2.$ Calculate Forecasting Accuracy Metrics: For each forecasting technique, calculate the following:

$-$ Mean Absolute Deviation $($MAD$)$

$-$ Mean Squared Error $($MSE$)$

$-$ Mean Absolute Percentage Error $($MAPE$)$

$3.$ Analyze Results:

$-$ Summarize the MAD, MSE, and MAPE values for each forecasting technique in a table.

$-$ Identify which forecasting method has the lowest MAD, MSE, and MAPE values.

$4.$ Answer the Question:

$-$ Based on your calculations, determine which forecasting technique is the most accurate. Justify your answer using the calculated metrics.

$5.$ Submit Your Work:

$-$ Include your detailed calculations for MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each technique.

$-$ Use word document for this assignment.

$-$ Provide a short written conclusion about which forecasting technique is the most accurate and why.

$-$ Present your findings in a clear and organized format $($e$.$g$.,$ tables, and explanations$).$

$-$ Submit you work on or before $11$:$59$ pm of January $27,2025.$

Example Table for Results:

Technique MADMSEMAPE $(\backslash \%)$

Na$$ve Forecasting

$2-$point Moving Average

$3-$point Moving Average

Forecasting Monitoring

Na$$ve Forecasting

$2-$point Moving Average

$3-$point Moving Average

Which forecasting technique is accurate based on their MAD, MSE, and MAPE?