Question: Instructions: Choose the Moving Average or Exponential Smoothing method to complete a time series forecast on one of the two datasets provided and predict for
Instructions:
- Choose the Moving Average or Exponential Smoothing method to complete a time series forecast on one of the two datasets provided and predict for the January 2023 period.
- Complete a multiple regression model (using three independent variables from those available) on the SAME dataset as in #1, in Microsoft Excel using the data analysis pack and predict for the January 2023 period. Introduction to Multivariate Regression with Microsoft Excel to see how I multiply values against the coefficients) Scroll to bottom of this page for some more optional helpful videos.
- Evaluate the following measures of performance:
- Forecast error (Forecast Error and Absolute Forecast Error ~ See video for explanation)
- Coefficient of variation
- R-Squared
- P-Values
- F-Statistic
- Coefficients
- Evaluate the performance of your regression model and compare it to the results of the time series analysis method you chose. I.E. Use the stuff in #3.
- Identify what the regression model explains in a way that a business person can understand. This should include an explanation of the independent variables and how they relate to the dependent variable.
- Create a report that summarizes your findings and includes a visual representation of your results (e.g., a graph or chart). Your report should be well-organized and well-written, using clear and concise language.
- The report should be submitted in Microsoft Word format and should be no more than two pages in length (excluding the visual representation of your results).
- Submit your Microsoft Excel (xlsx) file in proper and professional working order. (hide unnecessary sheets, clean up sheets that you may have 'tried' or 'experimented' with ideas, etc...).
- Your work will be evaluated based on the accuracy of your calculations, the quality of your analysis and interpretation of the results, and the clarity and organization of your report and Microsoft Excel file.
- You work should be professional, honoring data-ink ratio, including file name considerations.
| Month | Sales Revenue | Advertising Spend | Sales Employees | Price Per Unit | Competitor Price | Temperature | Selling Days |
| January-2021 | $ 48,922.00 | $ 3,586.30 | 12 | 11.99 | 13.99 | 19 | 22 |
| February-2021 | $ 48,640.00 | $ 2,131.00 | 11 | 11.99 | 13.99 | 38 | 23 |
| March-2021 | $ 56,023.00 | $ 7,867.50 | 15 | 9.99 | 13.99 | 50 | 22 |
| April-2021 | $ 78,492.00 | $ 9,730.40 | 16 | 9.99 | 13.99 | 66 | 23 |
| May-2021 | $ 36,237.00 | $ 3,825.60 | 18 | 11.99 | 9.99 | 78 | 23 |
| June-2021 | $ 51,668.00 | $ 7,879.50 | 8 | 11.99 | 13.99 | 80 | 20 |
| July-2021 | $ 55,954.00 | $ 8,745.70 | 19 | 11.99 | 13.99 | 88 | 20 |
| August-2021 | $ 42,206.00 | $ 3,636.40 | 11 | 11.99 | 13.99 | 85 | 21 |
| September-2021 | $ 66,072.00 | $ 7,408.30 | 8 | 11.99 | 13.99 | 86 | 22 |
| October-2021 | $ 79,983.00 | $ 8,116.80 | 8 | 11.99 | 13.99 | 56 | 23 |
| November-2021 | $ 33,283.00 | $ 1,434.90 | 16 | 11.99 | 9.99 | 23 | 23 |
| December-2021 | $ 47,493.00 | $ 7,239.60 | 9 | 11.99 | 13.99 | 13 | 20 |
| January-2022 | $ 47,471.00 | $ 5,532.00 | 13 | 14.99 | 14.99 | 19 | 22 |
| February-2022 | $ 48,417.00 | $ 5,705.60 | 20 | 14.99 | 14.99 | 38 | 23 |
| March-2022 | $ 60,371.00 | $ 6,828.60 | 18 | 14.99 | 14.99 | 60 | 22 |
| April-2022 | $ 63,044.00 | $ 7,783.70 | 15 | 14.99 | 14.99 | 70 | 23 |
| May-2022 | $ 72,454.00 | $ 9,778.70 | 5 | 14.99 | 14.99 | 77 | 23 |
| June-2022 | $ 69,161.00 | $ 9,595.30 | 15 | 14.99 | 14.99 | 80 | 20 |
| July-2022 | $ 42,950.00 | $ 6,204.10 | 18 | 14.99 | 14.99 | 78 | 20 |
| August-2022 | $ 66,831.00 | $ 8,387.20 | 5 | 14.99 | 14.99 | 75 | 21 |
| September-2022 | $ 42,446.00 | $ 6,977.20 | 12 | 14.99 | 14.99 | 68 | 22 |
| October-2022 | $ 68,859.00 | $ 9,064.60 | 8 | 14.99 | 14.99 | 65 | 23 |
| November-2022 | $ 53,489.00 | $ 4,431.00 | 11 | 14.99 | 13.99 | 16 | 23 |
| December-2022 | $ 50,263.00 | $ 4,054.70 | 13 | 14.99 | 13.99 | 23 | 20 |
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