Introduction

Some of these activities may pose challenges as they require thinking about numbers and concepts in new ways. For this reason, these activities will be graded based on completion. As long as you make an attempt at each question and work through the problems, you will receive full credit for the assignment. The primary aim of these activities is to learn about complex statistical principles in a fun and manageable way, and problem-solving and trial-and-error are integral to the learning process. Instead of worrying about getting every answer perfect, these assignments are designed so you practice the techniques of numeracy. If an answer is slightly off, I will provide feedback to help guide you towards the correct answer. You are then welcome to continue working on the assignment to improve your understanding. At the very least, I highly recommend reviewing the comments I provide to understand any mistakes made and/or to verify your understanding of the material.

Activities:

1. Provide your own example of regression to the mean (p. 113). (2 pts)

1. "Judy is 33, unmarried, and quite assertive. A magna cum laude graduate, she majored in political science in college, and was deeply involved in campus social affairs, especially anti-discrimination and anti-nuclear issues." What is more probable? That she is a bank teller or a bank teller who is also active in the feminist movement? (p. 115)

Why are people more likely to think that she is both a bank teller and active in the feminist movement, and why are they wrong? (2 pts)

1. "Imagine you are a general surrounded by an overwhelming enemy force which will wipe out your 600-man army unless you take one of two available escape routes. Your intelligence officers explain that if you take the first route you will save 200 soldiers, whereas if you take the second route the probability is 1/3 that all 600 will make it, and 2/3 that none will. Which route do you take?"

"Again, you're a general faced with a decision between two escape routes. If you take the first one, you're told, 400 of your soldiers will die. If you choose the second route, the probability is 1/3 that none of your soldiers will die, and 2/3 that all 600 will die. Which route do you take?" (p. 117)

Why are people more likely to pick option 1 in the first example, and option 2 in the second? (2 pts)

1. What did you think about Paulos' description of math anxiety? How does it apply to you? (3 pts)
2. What did you think about Paulos' solutions to reduce innumeracy at the elementary, high school, and college level? (3 pts)