John is a self-employed carpenter. For each job John determines the required time if things go according to plan, and a longer time in case there need to be unforseen “extras” (e.g. while replacing clapboard he discovers that insulation is needed). He is paid $500 per week for each week worked. He knows for sure that he can start either of the two following jobs this coming Monday. Job/ Client Bathroom – Mrs. Murphy Kitchen – Mr. Janes Time (Weeks) and Probability Must Begin by the Outset of Week 5 6 No Extras 3 (0.2) 4 (0.7) With Extras 7 (0.8) 6 (0.3) Each potential customer wants John to do one of three things by Monday:

(1) start his/her job,

(2) promise to do his/her job by the required start date,

(3) say that he cannot do the job (the customer would then find another contractor). 

If a customer is told at the outset that his/her job cannot begin by the required time, then there’s no cost or revenue for that job. If John promises to start a job by the required time, and 

(i) the promise is kept, he’s paid for the actual duration of the job,

(ii) if the promise is not kept, there’s no revenue, and there’s a cost of $1000 for lost customer goodwill. 

Make and solve a decision tree for this situation. Please show all workings and calculations