John is responsible for coming up with a forecast of the number of visitors to Metro Zoo.
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Question:
Week | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 |
Visitors | 620 | 730 | 880 | 700 | 830 | 1,020 | 900 |
Based on the data above, what is John’s forecast of the number of visitors for week 8 using each of the following methods?
- Naïve forecast.
- A three-period moving average
- A five-week weighted moving average using a weight of 0.3 for t-1 (i.e., one period before), 0.25 for t-2 (i.e., two periods before), 0.2 for t-3 (i.e., three periods before), 0.15 for t-4 (i.e., four periods before) and 0.1 for t-5 (i.e., five periods before).
- An Exponential Smoothing method, assuming that the forecast for week 5 was 900, using a value of 0.3 for .
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