Lab Assignment #4 Times Series Forecasting

Question:

A sales network analyzes data on sales of goods by stores located in cities with a population of fewer than 50,000 people. The period is for 2019-2020. The task is to identify the main development trend.

2019 Quarter Sales

1 $145000

2 $258000

3 $325000

4 $254000

2020

1 $259000 2 $317000 3 $387000 4 $321000

Using a damping factor for exponential smoothing of 0.3.

Question 1: Place a screen shot of the exponential smoothing table showing the year, quarter, sales, smoothed level, and standard errors.

Question 2: Place a screen shot showing the corresponding actual vs. forecasted line chart corresponding to question 1.

Question 3: Use time series forecasting techniques described in the example to provide an actual vs. actual (linear) chart allowing us to forecast up to 4 periods.

Question 4: What is the linear equation? In the example it is y=22179x + 189321. Write it here.

Question 5: What is R squared?

Question 6: How would you describe the forecast to management, in your own words and using what you have developed above? 2-3 paragraphs in business analytics memo format below.