Lab Project #$3(15$ pts$.)$

IS$187/$ MGMT $158$ S$2020$

Time Management

The time management knowledge area is one of the most important chapters in the

PMBOK Guide from a PMP exam point of view.

You are going to see a lot of questions from this chapter in the exam; therefore study

this chapter thoroughly and make sure you are able to solve all practice questions given

in this chapter.

In the exam you can see questions from following given topics:

$-$ Triangular Distribution

$-$ Beta Distribution $($PERT$)$

$-$ Standard Deviation, Variance

$-$ Critical Path Method

$-$ Type of Dependency

$-$ Total Float and Free Float

$-$ Schedule Compressions Technique

$-$ Crashing

Now let$$s discuss each of them in detail.

Triangular and beta distribution are used to calculate the activity duration. To calculate

triangular or beta estimate you use three estimates for each activity:

$1)$ Optimistic Estimate

$2)$ Pessimistic Estimate

$3)$ Most Likely Estimate

The optimistic estimate is the least possible time in which the activity can be finished. It

is denoted by to$.$

$2$

The pessimistic estimate is the worst case scenario. Here you assume the worst case for

the activity to complete. Simply put, this is the maximum time required to complete an

activity. It is denoted by tp$.$

The most likely estimate is the most probable time the activity will take to be completed.

It is denoted by tm$.$

Once you get these three estimate, you can calculate the triangular or beta estimate very

easily.

Triangular Distribution

In triangular distribution, the mean is equal to the sum of these three, and divided by

three. Mean $=($Optimistic $+$ Most$-$likely $+$ Pessimist$)/3$

Or$,$

Expected Duration $($Triangular Distribution$)$ te$=($to $+$ tm $+$ tp$)/3$

Example

Your team member told you that in your project, painting work may take $20$ days to

complete. However, if the weather is not favorable it will take $26$ days. He also told you

that if all conditions are good, painting can be completed in $18$ days.

Using triangular distribution, calculate the expected duration for this activity.

Solution:

According to triangular

estimate, Expected

Duration te$=($to $+$ tm $+$

tp$)/3$ Given Data:

tm $=20$ days tp $=26$ days to $=18$ days

Therefore, expected duration $=(20+26+18)/3$

$=21\mathrm{.}33$ days

$3$

$***$

Practice Question: $1$

You have been given a task which might take $60$ days to complete; however if the conditions

are favorable it might be completed in $55$ days. In the worst case scenario, it may take $70$

days.

Find the average estimate for this task using triangular estimate.