Lee wanted to use three different prediction methods to find the best one. Please fill out the blanks of E, F, G, H, I, J below.

What will the values of E, F, G, H, I and J?

3. Consider the prediction results in 2008 and 2009 only. Lee said he developed a new accuracy

measure as follows:

Lees measure = MSE + Bias

However, his colleagues Jay and Bob asked to use MSE and Bias, respectively. First, find all the accuracy values of three prediction methods. Is the best method different from the accuracy measures? Based on the observation, what do you think is the best prediction method?

Year Seasonality + Exponential Smoothing De-seasonalized Seasonalized Forecast by Forecast by Exponential Exponential Smoothing Smoothing la = 0.3) 35 Seasonality + Linear Trend De-seasonalized Seasonalized Forecast by Forecast by Simple Linear Simple Trend Linear Trend Quarter Seasonality+Moving Average De-seasonalized Seasonalized Forecast by Forecast by Moving Average Moving (n = 3) Average 1 2 3 39 42 41 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 1 2 3 4 1 2 E F 1 G 3 4 H Year Seasonality + Exponential Smoothing De-seasonalized Seasonalized Forecast by Forecast by Exponential Exponential Smoothing Smoothing la = 0.3) 35 Seasonality + Linear Trend De-seasonalized Seasonalized Forecast by Forecast by Simple Linear Simple Trend Linear Trend Quarter Seasonality+Moving Average De-seasonalized Seasonalized Forecast by Forecast by Moving Average Moving (n = 3) Average 1 2 3 39 42 41 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 1 2 3 4 1 2 E F 1 G 3 4 H