lets reply to Jessica's post with positive feedback or I agree in 100 words. start with hello jessica

Jessica Lopez Jun 17 5:14pm | Last edited Jun 17 5:18pm The text shows that anchoring, beginning with an initial estimate and not adjusting sufficiently is the major reason why people, particularly experts, frequently exhibit overconfidence by expressing confidence intervals that are too narrow. Three essential heuristics are identified by the authors: availability, accuracy, and anchoring. Because of availability, people tend to depend on information that is easier to remember; representativeness leads to judgments based on resemblance rather than actual probability and anchoring results in insufficient adjustment from baseline values. These heuristics have the potential to produce serious mistakes, such overestimating the likelihood of an event and neglecting crucial statistical ideas like regression to the mean. People rarely group occurrences by their projected probabilities, which makes it hard to appropriately calibrate beliefs and hinders their ability to learn from experience. People should embrace formal statistical reasoning, critically assess their gut feelings, and frequently compare their forecasts with actual results in order to become more conscious of these biases. This method can lessen the influence of psychological biases in daily life and increase the accuracy of decisions. Reply | & Mark as Unread