Managerial Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets THIRD EDITION NAGRAJ (RAJU) BALAKRISHNAN

Tittle: Simulation Modeling

Prob. 10-31

Winston-Salems general hospital has an emergency room that is divided into six departments: (1) the initial station, to treat minor problems and make diagnoses; (2) an x-ray department; (3) an operating room; (4) a cast-fitting room; (5) an observation room for recovery and general observation before final diagnosis or release; and (6) an out-processing department, where clerks check out patients and arrange for payment or insurance forms. The probabilities that a patient will go from one department to another are presented in the following table. (See Table for Problem 10-31 on page 468.) Simulate the trail followed by 200 emergency room patients. Process 1 patient at a time, from entry at the initial exam station until leaving through out-processing. Note that a patient can enter the same department more than once. Based on your simulation, what is the probability that a patient enters the x-ray department more than once?

10-31. Winston-Salem's general hospital has an emergency room that is divided into six departments: (1) the initial exam station, to treat minor problems and make diagnoses; (2) an x-ray department; (3) an operating room; (4) a cast-fitting room; (5) an observation room for recovery and general observation before final diagnosis or release; and (6) an out-processing department, where clerks check out patients and arrange for payment or insurance forms. The probabilities that a patient will go from one department to another are presented in the following table. (See Table for Problem 10-31 on page 468.) Simulate the trail followed by 200 emergency room patients. Process 1 patient at a time, from entry at the initial exam station until leaving through out-processing. Note that a patient can enter the same department more than once. Based on your simulation, what is the probability that a patient enters the X-ray department more than once? 468 CHAPTER 10 SIMULATION MODELING Table for Problem 10-31 FROM TO Initial exam station X-ray department Operating room Observation room Out-processing clerk X-ray department Operating room Cast-fitting room Observation room Out-processing clerk Operating room Cast-fitting room Observation room Out-processing clerk Cast-fitting room Observation room X-ray department Out-processing clerk Observation room Operating room X-ray department Out-processing clerk PROBABILITY 0.45 0.15 0.10 0.30 0.10 0.25 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.70 0.05 0.55 0.05 0.40 0.15 0.15 0.70