Manangerial Decision Making

Please include formulas AND answers for ALL the boxes on the excel sheet

3-48 A market research company has approached you about the possibility of using its services to help you decide whether to launch a new product. According to its customer portfolio, it has correctly predicted a favorable market for its clients' products 14 out of the last 16 times. It has also correctly predicted an unfavorable market for its clients' products 9 out of 11 times. Without this research company's help, you have estimated the probability of a favorable market at 0.55. Calculate the posterior probabilities, using the track record of the research firm. \begin{tabular}{|l|l|} \hline Conditional probabilities & \\ \hline P( Fav survey Fav market )= & Prior probabilities \\ \hline P( Unfav survey Fav market )= & P( Fav mkt )= \\ P( Fav survey Unfav market )= & P( Unfav mkt )= \\ \hline P( Unfav survey Unfav market )= & \\ \hline \end{tabular} Posterior probabilities GIVEN favorable survey \begin{tabular}{|l|c|c|c|c|} \hline & Conditional prob & Prior & Joint & Posterior \\ \hline Outcome & P( Fav survey Outcome ) & prob & prob & prob \\ \hline Fav market & & & \\ \hline Unfav market & & & \\ \hline \multicolumn{4}{|c|}{P (Favorable survey =} \\ \hline \end{tabular} Posterior probabilities GIVEN unfavorable survey \begin{tabular}{|l|c|c|c|c|} \hline & Conditional prob & Prior & Joint & Posterior \\ \hline Outcome & P( Unfav survey Outcome ) & prob & prob & prob \\ \hline Fav market & & & \\ \hline Unfav market & & & \\ \hline \multicolumn{4}{|c|}{P( Unfavorable survey )=} \\ \hline \end{tabular}