MGMT$35001$D Operations Management $1$

Complete the following:

Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.

a$.$ Calculate the simple three$-$month moving average forecast for periods $4-12.$

b$.$ Calculate the weighted three$-$month moving average using weights of $0\mathrm{.}50($for the most recent observation$),0\mathrm{.}30,$ and $0\mathrm{.}20($for the oldest observation$)$ for periods $4-12.$

c$.$ Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods $2-12$ using an initial forecast of $61($F$1)$ and alpha of $0\mathrm{.}30.$

d$.$ Calculate MAD, MSD$,$ and MAPE for the forecasts made by each technique in periods $4-12.$ Which forecasting method do you prefer?