MGMT 3213 Problem 1: Forecasting

• All analysis and calculations and report must be done in a single (ONE) Excel file.
• Put your name at the top of the worksheet.
• Make Excel do all of the calculations. (Instructor must be able to see your cell-reference formulas.)
• Include report/answers below the forecasting calculations.
  • Make sure answers are clear, complete and easy to find.
• • Your report must include:

1. Presentation of forecasts
2. Explanation of why you chose each of the methods

1. Annual sales of product from XYZ corporation have been recorded as follows:

Year	Sales (000 units)		Year	Sales (000 units)
1	220		8	360
2	245		9	400
3	280		10	380
4	275		11	420
5	300		12	450
6	310		13	460
7	350		14	475

Management is interested in implementing a new forecasting system and investigating the following forecasting methods as possibilities:

Simple moving average, Weighted moving average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Regression.

• Choose two of these methods and calculate forecasts for Year 15
  • If you use Exponential Smoothing, begin with the assumption the Forecast for Year 12 was 435 (choose your own alpha)
• Present your forecast results
• Explain why each of your chosen methods is appropriate for the data and time frame given