Modeling Influenza At Malady College, a college campus of 5000 students, the spread of influenza is rampant.
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- Modeling Influenza At Malady College, a college campus of 5000 students, the spread of influenza is rampant. In this problem, we will call each student either susceptible or infected with influenza, and if the student is not infected they are susceptible. During any given year, the percentage of the U.S. population that will get the flu, on average, each year is between 5% and 20%. At Malady, if a student is not infected with influenza the chance that they will catch the flu on any given day is 16 %, and if a student has the flu the chance that they will recover and return to susceptible on any given day is 40 %.
- a. Create a matrix, A, (called the transition matrix) whose columns represent the current state a student, either susceptible or infected, maybe in and whose rows represent the state of a student, either susceptible or infected, tomorrow, and where Ai,j is the probability of a student going from current state j today to state i tomorrow.
- b. If 100 students have the flu initially, how many students have the flu on the second day? How many students have the flu on the tenth day?
- c. How many days does it take for the number of students with the flu to stabilize?
- d. How many students have the flu initially if there are 1400 students with the flu on the third day?
Related Book For
Mathematical Applications for the Management Life and Social Sciences
ISBN: 978-1305108042
11th edition
Authors: Ronald J. Harshbarger, James J. Reynolds
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