Module 4 Discussion: Probability

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Student one post:

Probability has a lot to do with luck. The first question asked if there was a chance that if changing my mind would be worth it in a guessing game show. It would absolutely

be a chance that changing my mind would hinder my chance of winning. Even though there is no door that has no prize at all and I will definitely be winning something not leaving empty handed. One of the rewards was goats. Goats are not my kind of type of interest but I could have done something with the goats. The other was a brand new vehicle and I could have done something with the car supposedly. I would have chose the door that I felt most comfortable in choosing and then stayed with the answer. I would not have taken the chance to change my answer.

I do not know how to specifically win the lottery. But I have see people playing tickets from the corner store and scratch offs. I have played them as well. The best thing to do is the same way as before and stay with the role of tickets that I picked. What I do best is I choose a roll that sticks best with me at the store of my choice and I stay on that roll. But first I would save up a good price of money to build a foundation. Because sometimes the more I spend the better chance that I have to win. I do not play scratch off a lot though.

Student two post: So, for the game show, it's not really to my advantage to switch, but at the same time, I don't know what's behind each door, so if I were to switch, I think I could be getting something more significant than my original choice. The probability of me picking the door with a car to a door with two goats is a 25% chance that I will choose the door with the car and a 75% chance I will pick the door with the goats. With the lottery, I think that the best chance that you can get of winning the lottery is both playing more frequently and buying more tickets because the more freaking that you play, the more tickets you're lying you have a higher chance of actually winning because the more you do it, the higher your chances get. But simultaneously, it's all about possibilities because somebody who played the lottery for the first time wins the grand prize. So I would say it's probably 50-50. An example of using probabilities in your daily life would be going to the grocery store person on Saturday. Either you decide to go early in the morning or go later in the afternoon because you're trying to balance what's going to be the least amount of people. You never know because I go to the grocery store in the morning, and sometimes I'm just like, the earlier I go, the fewer people it will be. I was shocked because there were just a lot of people in the morning as well, even in the afternoon when there could be many people. Another example I use daily is when I want to travel because my sister works for an airline, so I could fly non-revenue. And there's a 50-50 chance that I get on the flight, and there's a chance that I might not find a seat on the flight, and you have to wait it out and see.