Question: Month 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Jan 104 101 88 132 125 111 127 119 147 145 Feb 100 96

Month

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Jan

104

101

88

132

125

111

127

119

147

145

Feb

100

96

110

109

118

123

129

147

146

149

Mar

99

82

129

101

121

121

132

164

133

148

Apr

88

84

113

111

140

139

108

135

148

148

May

89

85

114

140

141

119

115

124

141

148

Jun

108

124

169

179

201

156

149

168

191

201

Jul

109

134

131

145

152

154

155

159

178

184

Aug

101

109

139

140

138

136

129

137

156

166

Sep

106

121

120

120

137

105

117

149

119

151

Oct

102

111

115

129

138

132

166

159

138

166

Nov

78

101

116

118

144

123

152

175

175

170

Dec

111

112

128

139

148

164

173

195

188

194

2.Use exponential smoothing to fit the data. Select an appropriate constant a based on the variation you see in the data. Comment on the appropriateness of exponential smoothing on this data set. Plot the predictions from this model on the graph with the original data. How well does this technique fit the data?Make forecasts for each month in 2007.

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