Nathan$$s Widgets manufactures and distributes Fidget Cubes for multiple retailers

including Wamazmart. Their current forecast methodology has been Last Period

Value, but they have achieved poor accuracy, poor production plans, and high

levels of stockouts and$/$or overstocks. They have contracted with your Consulting

Firm to help them with the following:

$1.(4$ points$)$ What type of demand fluctuation is shown in the graph below?

What led you to that conclusion?

$2.(12$ points$)$ What would the forecast be for $2024$ using the following

forecast methods: Arithmetic Mean, Moving Average $($n$=6),$ Weighted

Moving Average $($n$=4$ a$1=0\mathrm{.}4,$ a$2=0\mathrm{.}3,$ a$3=0\mathrm{.}15,$ a$4=0\mathrm{.}15),$ and their current

forecast method Last Period Value? $(4$ answers needed, each worth $3$

points$)$

$3.(9$ points$)$ What forecast method would you recommend? Support your

recommendation with $3$ supporting facts$/$reasons$/$observations$.$ No

calculations are required but can be used to support if desired. Supporting

observations should be given in sentence$/$paragraph format.

Year Demand

$2014195,055$

$2015179,451$

$2016189,203$

$2017178,475$

$2018175,550$

$2019179,451$

$2020170,673$

$2021173,599$

$2022167,747$

$2023156,044$

$2024??$