Need 2 A and 2 B

Average Bias = -0.9 MAD - 3.5 MAPE 14% Bias 1.1 MAD 4.9 MAPE 163 PROBLEMS 2 3 4 5 9 8 40 Assume you are forecasting with an exponential smoothing model using a=0.6. How much weight is placed on the most recent actual demand? How much weight is given to the demand one much weight is given to data from two periods in the past? 2. Given the series of demand data below Period 1 6 7 8 10 Demand 40 33 56 43 23 45 38 29 40 1. Calculate the forecasts for periods 7 through 11 using moving average models with = 2. n = 4, and n= 6. b. Calculate the bias and MAD for each set of forecasts. Which moving average model is best? 1. If last period's forecast was 27 and the demand was 30, what was the forecast error? What would be the forecast for the next period using an exponential smoothing model with a = 3! 1. Lise the Excel spreadsheet that accompanies this chapter to evaluate different forecasting models using the ice cream sales data. Try the following parameters for the moving average and simpl 0.1.0.5.0.9. Which parameters yield the best forecasting model for the periods under evaluation? 1. You have become concemed about the amount of copier paper used in your office after repeatedly rmning out of supplies. Your assistant keep track of the number of reams (packages of 500 Week 1 2 3 5 7 9 10 11 12 Reams of paper 232 263 271 248 235 261 207 243 237 293 243 260 Week 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Reams of paper 253 270 230 253 238 272 222 243 289 238 262 234 . Compare the effectiveness of two-week, four-week, and six-week moving averages. Which should you use to forecast copier paper use during the next week? b. Compare the performance of the simple exponential smoothing model with smoothing constants of 0.01, 0.05, and 0.25. Assume a forecast for week 1 of 230 teams. Which constant worked 5. Assume that you are the production manager for Fast Current Kayaks of Washington State. One of the products that you make and sell is the "Fast Current" sen touring kayak paddle. You production capacity to meet demand (given the very high markup on the paddles) 4 6 7 8