NEED ASSISTANCE WITH SOLVER #5

Note: Make sure you compute your forecast error terms (MAD/MSE/MAPE) based on periods 5-36.

1. Generate a 4-period Moving Average model. Provide the forecast for month 37.
2. Compute the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for the model developed in part a.
3. Develop a linear trend model and provide the forecast for month 37.
4. Compute the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for the model developed in part c.
5. Determine the optimal smoothing constant alpha for a singleexponential smoothing model such that the MAD value is minimized.
6. Based on the model developed in part e., indicate what the month 37 forecast value is.
7. Compute the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for the model developed in parts e and f.
8. Based on the responses to parts a. g., what forecast would you recommend that CellarUSA use for period 37?

FORECASTING MODELS MonthBottles SoldNaveFour-Period Moving AvgExp. Smth .3Exp. Smth .5Linear TrendJan123,509 Feb221,70723509 Mar318,77421707 Apr422,00218774 May523,00822002 Jun626,21623008 Jul727,32226216 Aug829,31027322 Sep931,21029310 Oct1034,21731210 Nov1139,53434217 Dec1243,44639534 Jan1323,53343446 Feb1423,41223533 Mar1521,44523412 Apr1624,22721445 May1726,92724227 Jun1829,71126927 Jul1931,13029711 Aug2032,43331130 Sep2134,53832433 Oct2235,74134538 Nov2342,02435741 Dec2442,61542024 Jan2531,01542615 Feb2630,44531015 Mar2729,84830445 Apr2832,52829848 May2934,54832528 Jun3033,81634548 Jul3134,24733816 Aug3236,73034247 Sep3339,72436730 Oct3442,44939724 Nov3543,60142449 Dec3647,42843601 Jan37