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Problem B (40%) - ALWAYS SHOW YOUR CALCULATIONS You have become the COO of John Cabot. The data below represents the demand of courses during the most recent 6 years (2008-2013). Year Actual F1 2008 160 2009 180 178 2010 169 179 2011 171 182 2012 180 181 2013 175 180 2014 183 1) (10%) Suppose there is a linear trend. Forecast demand for 2014. TIP: F=a+bt where "-, - 1-() he a 2) (10%) Using a 3 period moving average, a 3 period weighted moving average (.85, 10, .05), and an additive nave approach, forecast the demand in 2014. III 3) (10%) Forecast 2014 using an exponential factor of 0.25. TIP: F = F,- +a(A.-.-F..) 4) (10%) Suppose an actual of 180 for 2014. Compare F1 with exponential smoothing by giving more weight to bigger errors. Which forecast is better? Actual, - Forecast (Actual. - Forecast, MAD- MSE - -1