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0.19 TABLE 9.30 Expected profit table Demand Probability Possible stock action (alternative) (event) 15 16 17 18 19 20 (x(in) (x(ii) Ox(iv) (7)x(v) (1) (VI) (x(vii) 15 0.04 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 16 0.43 0.46 0.41 0.36 0.31 0.27 17 0.33 0.74 0.79 0.84 0.76 0.68 0.59 18 0.26 0.58 0.62 0.66 0.70 0.64 19 0.11 0.25 0.26 0.28 0.30 0.31 0.29 20 0.07 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 EMIR) 2.25 2.44 2.37 2.19 1.97 (a) The vendor should order 17 copies to get maximum expected daily profit of 2.44 (b) EPPI is computed as below. TABLE 9.31 0.57 2.38 Event Probabilin Payoff under Expected payoff perfect information under perfect information 15 0.04 2.25 0.09 16 0.19 2.40 0.46 17 0.33 2.55 0.84 18 0.26 2.70 0.70 19 0.11 2.85 0.31 20 0.07 3.00 0.21 EPPI () 2.61 Thus EPPI = 2.61 (c) EVPI = EPPI - max expected EMV = 3 (2.61 -2.44) = 0.17. Thus the vendor should not spend more than 0.17 for market survey V5790 OPERATIONS RESEARCH EXAMPLE 9.8-2 A bicycle repairman has an opportunity to purchase a stock of discontinued bicycles. They were originally supposed to be sold for 400 each. The repairman is offered all five bicycles for 500, which makes his cost for each bicycle 100. If he sells them, he believes, he can get 250 for each bicycle, thereby making a profit of 150. He has two options: either to buy all the discontimed bicycles or not to buy at all. There are six states of nature; these being the demand for 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 bicycles. (i) Prepare the payoff as well as regret tables for the problem. (i) If the repairman has the option of buying any mumber of bicycles (0 to 5), find the average expected payoff and average expected regret for each stock action. [PTU. B.Tech., 2000)