Need step$-$by$-$step done in excel. thank you! data in the picture, comments are very important.

Question $1$: $$ Objectives: Make visual inspection to identify the patterns. You should be able to o create the time series plot o Identify the patterns of time series data $$ Use Line chart to create the time series plot $$ Identify the patterns of time series data. o Slides: Time Series Patterns o Seasonality pattern means that you can identify the repeated cycles in the data, and the length of each cycle is shorter than a year. A cycle is not necessarily in quarters. Inside a cycle, the data is not necessarily in quarters either. They could be in months, in days, in hours, etc. $$ Comment on: What kinds of patterns can be observed in the time series plot? What pattern is more obvious? Is there any trend pattern? If yes, what kind of trend pattern? How would you propose the forecasting model basing on your observation?

Question $2$: $$ Objectives: Propose two forecasting models and compare them to decide which one is better o Propose forecasting models basing on the observation from visual inspection o Compare models using important signals such as R square or MSE $$ Propose the forecasting models o For first model, include only the most obvious pattern o For second model, include the less obvious pattern too o Use separate tab to create different models. o You need to prepare data first to each model $$ Compare the models o Compare R square o Calculate MSE and compare $$ Comment on: Which model is better? Should the better model have a higher R square or a lower R square? Should the better model have a higher MSE or a lower MSE?

Question $3$ & Question $4$: $$ Objectives: Use the forecasting model you pick to do the forecasts for the next year's monthly sales. o Prepare the data from the future years to plug in the model for the monthly forecasts o Be able to explain why forecasted sales is different to the actual sales $$ Calculate the forecast error and the percentage of forecast error. Do you think those errors are big ones? $$ Comment on: Are the forecast error and the percentage of forecast error the big ones? How would you comment on the forecasting model you pick?

Year Month Sales

$1$ January $242$

$1$ February $235$

$1$ March $232$

$1$ Apirl $178$

$1$ May $184$

$1$ June $140$

$1$ July $145$

$1$ August $152$

$1$ September $110$

$1$ October $130$

$1$ November $152$

$1$ December $206$

$2$ January $263$

$2$ February $238$

$2$ March $247$

$2$ Apirl $193$

$2$ May $193$

$2$ June $149$

$2$ July $157$

$2$ August $161$

$2$ September $122$

$2$ October $130$

$2$ November $167$

$2$ December $230$

$3$ January $282$

$3$ February $255$

$3$ March $265$

$3$ Apirl $205$

$3$ May $210$

$3$ June $160$

$3$ July $166$

$3$ August $174$

$3$ September $126$

$3$ October $148$

$3$ November $173$

$3$ December $235$