Network Diagram Activities	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	Path Duration	Path Standard Deviation	Probability of path completion being less than	Path completion time associated with probability (or confidence level) of
Activity Duration (mean/median/mode)	4	7	2	5	10	13	4
Activity standard deviation (SD)	0.8	2.4	1	2	3.3	4	1	33.65	95%
Path ACEG	4		2		10		4	20	3.68	99.99%	26.05
Path BCEG		7	2		10		4	23	4.32	99.32%	30.10
Path BDEG		7		5	10		4	26	4.65	94.99%	33.65
Path BDF		7		5		13		25	5.08	95.58%	33.35
Enter New Path here
		Expected project duration (length of critical path)	26
Plug in the appropriate numbers into cells K8 and L8 above (and DO NOT modify any of the other cells) to readily answer the following questions. Type in your answers in the blue cells.	ANSWERS
QUESTION 1. What is the probability that path BCEG will complete in less than 32 (time units)?
QUESTION 2. What completion time for path ACEG would have a probability of 85%
QUESTION 3. Your sponsor requests you for a project completion time (which the COO has requested her for) but wants you to have a 95% confidence level that you will complete within that time. What number would you give her? Briefly explain how you obtained your answer.
CHALLENGE QUESTION (NOT GRADED): Approximately how likely is the project to complete in 28 weeks or less? Remember, the answer is approximate and your reasoning can be roughly right too. You may make some roughly right assumptions (HINT: assume that the durations for the four paths are independent - which, of course is not completely true but roughly right). Provide a number AND a brief explanation.
Answers for new-path question. Type in your answers in the next column as two comma separated numbers, the FIRST NUMBER being the probability of completion in less than 13 weeks, and the SECOND NUMBER being the path completion time associated with 85% probability.