$($Note; please check picture attached to question for data$)$

a$.$ Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe any trend, cycles, or random variations?

b$.$ Starting in year $4$ and going to year $12,$ forecast demand using a three$-$year moving average. Plot

your forecast on the same graph as the original data.

c$.$ Starting in year $4$ and going to year $12,$ forecast demand using a three$-$year moving average with

weights of $0\mathrm{.}1,0\mathrm{.}3,$ and $0\mathrm{.}6,$ using $0\mathrm{.}6$ for the most recent year. Plot this forecast on the same

graph.

d$.$ As you compare forecasts with the original data, which seems to give the better results? $Px$

$4\mathrm{.}3$ Refer to Problem $4\mathrm{.}2.$ Develop a forecast for years $2$ through $12$ using exponential smoothing with

$=0\mathrm{.}4$ and a forecast for year $1$ of $6.$ Plot your new forecast on a graph with the actual data and the naive

forecast. Based on a visual inspection, which forecast is better? $Px$