Question: Note: Problems 1 1 2 are designed to give you practice in setting up a simulation model and demonstrating how random numbers can be used
Note: Problems are designed to give you practice in setting up a simulation model and demonstrating how random numbers can be used to generate values for the probabilistic inputs. These problems, which ask you to provide a small number of simulation trials, can be done with hand calculations. This approach should give you a good understanding of the simulation process, but the simulation results will not be sufficient for you to draw final conclusions or make decisions about the situation. Problems are more realistic in that they ask you to generate simulation outputs for a large number of trials and use the results to draw conclusions about the behavior of the system being studied. These problems require the use of a computer to carry out the simulation computations. The ability to use Excel will be necessary when you attempt Problems Consider the PortaCom project discussed in Section a An engineer on the product development team believes that firstyear sales for the newprinter will be units. Using estimates of $ per unit for the direct labor cost and $ per unit for the parts cost, what is the firstyear profit using the engineers sales estimate?b The financial analyst on the product development team is more conservative, indicating that parts cost may well be $ per unit. In addition, the analyst suggests that a sales volume of units is more realistic. Using the most likely value of $ per unit for the direct labor cost, what is the firstyear profit using the financial analysts estimates?c Why is the simulation approach to risk analysis preferable to generating a variety of whatif scenarios such as those suggested by the engineer and the financial analyst?
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