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3. A special type of sunglass has the following demand history by quarters over the past 3 years: 2000 Demand 2001 Demand 2002 Demand 1 25 1 34 1 30 2 52 2 65 2 92 3 154 3 144 3 170 4 105 4 125 4 95 a) Determine the seasonal factor for each quarter by the method of centered moving averages b) Using the results of (a) determine the depersonalized demand series, e) Predict the demand for the first quarter of 2003 for the depersonalized series from the six-quarter moving average. d) Using the results from parts (a) and (c), predict the demand for first quarter of 2003 e) Compare the results obtained in part (a) with seasonal factors obtained by the "quick and dirty method". 1 2000 wN st Centered Average Seasonal Period Year Quarter Demand Moving Deseasonlised Seasonal Index Data Average Index 1 25 0.341149 73.28167393 2 2 52 0.82084 63.34974435 3 3 154 85.125 1.809104 1.691437 91.04682341 4 4 105 87.875 1.194879 1.259691 83.35376159 5 1 34 88.25 0.385269 0.341149 99.66307654 6 2 65 89.5 0.726257 0.82084 79.18718044 7 3 144 91.5 1.57377 1.691437 85.13469202 8 4 125 94.375 1.324503 1.259691 99.23066856 9 1 30 101 0.29703 0.341149 87.93800871 10 2 92 100.5 0.915423 0.82084 112.0803169 11 3 170 1.691437 100.5062336 12 95 1.259691 75.41530811 2001 3 4 00 . 2002 WN 4 13 Forecast 31.85797 1 Deseasonlised Forecast 0.341149 93.38420466 1 2003