Over a long period, the total risk could still be substantial as what happened from 2001 to
Question:
Over a long period, the total risk could still be substantial as what happened from 2001 to 2010. In this case, a “buy-and-hold” strategy could still end up with low return. In contrast, a strategy, like Dollar Averaging, could perform well. The following table provides annual returns from SPY (an ETF that mimics S&P 500 index).
Year | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
Return | ‐0.0710 | ‐0.1676 | 0.2532 | 0.0315 | ‐0.0061 | 0.1629 | 0.0643 | ‐0.3384 | 0.1471 | 0.1812 |
Suppose you have $10,000 at the beginning of 2001, and a risk-free bond yielded 3%. What would be your total wealth at the end of 2010, and what is your geometric annual return if each of the following strategy is implemented?
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(a) Strategy A (Buy-and-Hold): Invest the total amount of money in SPY at the beginning of 2001.
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(b) Strategy B (Market Chasing): Invest everything in SPY if last year’s return is positive; invest only 80% in stock and the rest in the risk-free bond if last year’s return is negative. (Assuming year 2000 is a good year)
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(c) Strategy C (Dollar-Cost-Averaging): Adding $1000 additional money into your investment in SPY at the beginning of each year. (Assuming you do not have the $10,000 at the beginning, and can only come up with $1000 at the beginning of each year)
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(d) Strategy D (Mixed): Assuming you have the $10,000 at the beginning, but will only invest $1000 in SPY each year as in part (c). For the rest of the money, you’ll put in the risk-free account that earns 3% interest, and be able to withdraw $1000 to invest in SPY every year.
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(e) Comparing the above three strategies, what can you say?
Microeconomics An Intuitive Approach with Calculus
ISBN: 978-0538453257
1st edition
Authors: Thomas Nechyba